Private Equity · 5 min read
From investment thesis to exit evidence in logistics deals
Operational value creation in logistics is won or lost in the gap between the thesis and the realised EBITDA a buyer will accept.
ALKIMIUS ·
In transportation and logistics deals, much of the equity story depends on operational levers: pricing, network, terminals, procurement and technology. Those levers are easy to name in an investment memo and hard to evidence at exit.
Before signing: size the value, test the fragile assumptions
Screen the target at lane, customer and asset level, not only from the CIM. Identify which upside levers depend on the same contracts, customers or people — concentration of assumptions is a risk in itself.
After closing: turn the thesis into owned initiatives
- A value creation plan where every initiative has an owner, an EBITDA target and a confidence level.
- A 100-day plan made of investable business cases with gates.
- Pilots for the critical hypotheses before rollout capital is released.
Through exit: build evidence, not slides
Track plan versus realised EBITDA monthly against a baseline agreed at the start. When the time comes to sell, the value creation story is already documented the way a buyer's diligence team will test it.
The decision for you
For your current logistics holdings, ask one question: could you show a buyer today which part of EBITDA growth came from which initiative, with evidence? If not, that is the first gap to close.